Indonesia prepares to carry out B40 in January

Because case, rates may rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says

B40 will require extra 3 mln heaps feedstock, GAPKI states

Malaysia palm oil standard at highest because mid-2022

India may withdraw import tax hike in the middle of inflation, Mistry states

(Adds analyst remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil benchmark cost)

By Bernadette Christina

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recover in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, however rates are expected to stay elevated due to planned expansion of the nation's biodiesel required, industry experts said.

The palm oil standard rate in Malaysia has actually increased more than 35% this year, raised by sluggish output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the necessary domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to decrease fuel imports.

Palm oil output next year in leading producer Indonesia is anticipated to recover by 1.5 million metric tons compared with an approximated drop of just over a million loads this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, informed the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.

Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research firm Oil World, stated he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million tons next year after a 2.5 million lot drop in 2024.

While Indonesia's output is forecast to improve, supply from in other places and of other veggie oils is seen tightening.

Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip somewhat next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million lots in 2024.

"We would require a healing in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke stated.

'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE

The price surge in palm oil in the previous 7 weeks has been "frightening" for buyers, Mielke stated, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia enforces the so-called B40 policy.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated additional feedstock of around 3 million loads will be needed for B40 implementation, deteriorating export supply.

The present palm oil premium has currently caused palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke added.

Malaysian palm oil prices are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric lot in 2025, McGill of Glenauk estimated.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest because mid-2022.

"Sentiment right now is red-hot and extremely bullish, we need to be careful," stated Dorab Mistry, director at Indian consumer goods business Godrej International.

He anticipated the Malaysian cost around 5,000 ringgit and above up until June 2025.

Mielke and Mistry urged Indonesia to

consider postponing

B40 execution on issue about its influence on food consumers.

Meanwhile, Mistry expected leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its

import task hike

enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by John Mair, Jane Merriman and Daren Butler)